The Importance of Closing Line Value in Sports Betting

Closing Line Value is the difference between the odds that a player secures and the closing odds right before a game begins. Depending on market changes, odds can fluctuate between the time you make your wager and the time the event starts. This variation occurs due to aspects like player injuries, varying weather conditions, and public sentiments.

If you consistently place bets where the closing odds are more favourable than the odds at the time of betting, it implies a positive closing line value. It means you have anticipated market movement, establishing better odds than widely accepted before the match.

As an example, imagine a wager on a football team with a +3-point spread. Right before the game commences, the line shifts to +2.5. In this situation, the initial bet shows a positive CLV, indicating a wise early prediction, enabling players to obtain better odds than the closing market offered.

However, there can be instances where the closing moneyline or spreadline will be bigger than when you first bet on it, suggesting a missed opportunity to capitalise on favourable early odds. This is called a negative closing line value. For instance, you stake on a basketball team at -5, but the line shifts to -6 as the match approaches. Since the market moved contrary to your original position, it is a negative CLV. In this case, waiting to place the bet closer to the event is ideal to yield greater odds.

CLV can be calculated in various ways, such as: